June, 2018: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Stabilizing? - Bungalows For Sale in Toronto, The GTA & Beyond | JustBungalows.com™

TORONTO & GTA BUNGALOWS FOR SALE

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June, 2018: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Stabilizing?

05 July 2018
Andrew Gibson

Toronto, ON - July 5, 2018 - Newly elected TREB President Garry Bhaura this morning released the Toronto Real Estate Board’s residential MLS® listing and sold statistics reflecting a market that has stabilized considerably compared to the past year and what one major newspaper characterized - perhaps somewhat over-enthusiastically - as a “snappy turnaround”.

Overall - meaning all TREB areas and all home types - sales “rebounded” 2.4% to 8,082 units from last June’s relatively dismal 7,893 units. Of course, “last June” was still close on the heels of a hard downturn in the Toronto & GTA house market in the wake of policymakers’ changes to rules - notably Ontario's Fair Housing Plan and Foreign Buyer Tax - coincident with some sheer market [read “buyer”] exhaustion. 30% year-over-year price increases; crazy bidding wars; record low inventory…

Still, the lack of minus signs in front of the vast majority of numbers in the report is a welcome respite from months and months of reports dominated by them. Hopefully we can keep moving toward a more balanced buyer/seller market - sooner rather than later.

The Numbers

Detached home sales in Metro Toronto were up 5.9% to 885 at an average sale price of $1,354,429, down 2.4%. We didn’t say ALL the numbers were “plus”: It’s clearly the higher end of the market that’s still in a bit of a funk - for obvious reasons. In “The 905” - the balance of the Greater Toronto Area - the YoY figures were pretty much in line with those in The Big Smoke: 2,704 sales, up 5.3%, selling, on average, for $928,560, off 1.8%. All figures herein are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

Reflecting a better appetite - no doubt largely a function of pure ability to pay - the more modest freehold [e.g. non-condominium] homes were the more active sectors of the market. Sales of Semi-detached homes in T.O. were up 8.4% to 297 units at $999,754, up 1.4%. The rest of the GTA saw 519 Semis sell, up 7.9%, at a sale price of $665,606, up 1.8%.

Freehold Townhomes in the city saw 308 sales, up 5.1%; the periphery saw 1,024 sales, up 5.5%, for $608,969, up 2.4%.

On the Condo Apartment front, prices continued their rise despite continuing lower sales numbers due to buyer demand combined with simple lack of inventory. 1,593 Condos sold in Toronto, down 6%, averaging $605,530, up a tidy 9.5%. In The 905, 641 were reported, off 3.6%, at an average of $450,672, up 3.4%.

Demand for Toronto & GTA Bungalows

Bungalows in Toronto & the Greater Toronto Area continued to be popular for many different types of Buyers including those downsizing; first-time Buyers; and contractors looking for projects to renovate/expand - but, as with other house styles, activity tended toward the middle price ranges - especially compared to April, 2017 and the months before that point in time. Here’s a quick year-over-year comparison specifically of Bungalow sales in a sampling of GTA towns & areas based on transactions entered into TREB’s MLS® System this June versus June, 2017 [“DOM” = Days on Market [Median figure]]…

Newmarket [York] - 2018: 21 sales / Median $685,000 / 30 DOM; 2017: 12 sales / Median $692,500 / 8 DOM.

Aurora  [York] - 2018: 12 sales / Median $736,500 / 27 DOM; 2017: 6 sales / Median $860,000 / 19 DOM.

King Township  [York] - 2018: 14 sales / Median $1,006,000 / 32 DOM; 2017: 11 sales / Median $1,045,000 / DOM 14.

Mississauga  [Peel] - 2018: 55 sales / Median $792,500 / 13 DOM; 2017: 60 sales / Median $800,000 / 11 DOM.

Ajax [Durham] - 2018: 15 sales / Median $527,500 / 15 DOM; 2017: 13 sales / Median $562,500 / 8 DOM.

Toronto Etobicoke W08 - 2018: 17 sales / Median $940,000 / 8 DOM; 2017: 30 sales / Median $980,000 / 11 DOM.

Toronto Scarborough E04 - 2018: 36 sales / Median $725,500 / 12 DOM; 2017: 25 sales / Median $745,000 / 10 DOM.

Milton [Halton] - 2018: 12 sales / Median $784,000 / 24 DOM; 2017 13 sales / Median $910,000 / 19 DOM.

Bradford-West Gwillimbury [Simcoe] - 2018: 11 sales / Median $565,000 / 16 DOM; 2017: 9 sales / Median $640,000 / 11 DOM.

Generally speaking…

Overall inventory stood at 20,884 Total Active Listings, up 5.9%, while New Listings on the month totalled 15,922, down 18.6% from last June when the market was flooded as sellers tried to head for the exits - for various reasons - as the market rapidly softened. Forward Inventory [Active Listings/Sales] this June was 2.58 months. That’s in the range of “pretty normal” in the bigger picture. The Absoption Rate [Sales/New Listings] was .508. Those figures one year earlier were 2.47 months and .407 respectively.

The market remains characterized by “fragmentation” with some areas doing very well YoY, thank-you very much, while others remain in a hangover from the crazy days of Spring, 2017 and prior. Drop us a line if you’d care for an update of your own neck-of-the-woods specifically.

New Board President Bhaura summed things up thus via the MarketWatch report: “Home ownership has proven to be a positive long-term investment. After some adjustment to the Fair Housing Plan, the new Office of The Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) stress test requirement and generally higher borrowing costs, home buyers are starting to move back into the market, with sales trending up from last year’s lows. Market conditions appear to be tightening, with sales accounting for a greater share of listings, as new listings have dropped compared to last year.”

Added TREB’s “Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels”, Jason Mercer, “The expectation is to see improvement in sales over the next year. Over the same period, however, it is likely that issues surrounding the supply of listings will persist. This suggests that competition between buyers could increase, exerting increased upward pressure on home prices. With a new provincial government in place and municipal elections on the horizon, housing supply should be top-of-mind for policy makers.”

[H2] “Snappy Turnaround”? Or “Party Like Its 2008”?

While June’s sales total was, in fact, the best month so far this year, it's not looking too great in the larger scheme of things. Two Junes ago in 2016 - which was still a very active and very seller’s - market, granted, there were 12,794 sales. June 2015 saw 11,992. In fact, you’d have to go back a decade to 2008 to find a sales total comparable to this June’s: 8,600. That was a relatively “down” year too: That sales total was 18% below 2007’s 10,451, thanks largely to the financial crisis. Just for the record, the average price in June of 2008 was $395,866…a 4% rise over the prior June, even in the face of the world’s economic problems of the day. So, if its your “principal” residence, you doubled your money tax-free in 10 years…plus any leverage gained through financing…not bad. Shoulda bought a few.

By the way, it took homes, on average, 21 days to sell in June - “40% slower” than last June - though those are both still relatively short time frames by historical standards. [And - just for the record - in June, 2008 it was just over 30 DOM.]

Thank-you for your time - we hope you’re having a great summer!

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