December, 2014, sales of Detached homes and Condo in Toronto jumped 17.1% and 16.1%

January 7, 2015 - As far as resale residential real estate was concerned, the term "Seller's Market" very much defined 2014 in Metro Toronto and the GTA. While 2014's total sales figure of 92,867 units was 6.7% higher than 2013's, the shortage of listing inventory was very likely the primary reason last year fell just shy of the record for unit sales set in 2007 [93,193].

As the Toronto Real Estate Board's Director of Market Analysis, Jason Mercer, put it, "The strong price growth we experienced in 2014 can be explained with two words: Listings shortage." Mercer went on to note that the inventory shortage was particularly pronounced in the Detached, Semi-Detached and Townhome groups.

As would be expected under such market conditions, the average price in TREB's market area did hit a new high at $566,726 - an 8.4% increase from 2013's annual total. TREB began keeping annual average price statistics in 1966. Taking that year's $21,360 figure, we get an average annual increase of just under 7%.

Looking specifically at December, 2014, sales of Detached homes and Condo Apartments in Metro Toronto jumped 17.1% and 16.1% respectively on a year-over-year basis. Average prices were $934,039 for the Toronto Detached group, up 8.0%, and $387,612 for the Condos, up 5.4%.

Looking at the same two groups in the balance of the Greater Toronto Area, Detached sales were up 7.3% to 1,451 and the Condos fell 1.6% to 386 units on the month. Average prices were $668,063 for the former, up 6.6%, and $300,352 for the latter, up 2.2%. Again, all figures are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

Aside from that 1.6% drop in Condo Apartment sales in "the 905", the only other relatively weak spot on the month was the Semi-Detached group in "the 416", Metropolitan Toronto itself, where sales of Semis fell nearly 6% to 128 units; the average price for those sales was $615,794, off 4.4%. Semis in the rest of the GTA, however, spiked 24.1% to 283 units at an average price of $451,314, up 9.9%.

TREB reported that "New Listings" rose 9.5% versus December, 2013 but, as we've maintained all along, it can be a deceiving statistic in that often listings are terminated and re-written [e.g. for a price change, etc.]. The more telling figure, in our opinion, is the Total Active Listings which stood at 10,230 in December, down 10.4% compared to one year earlier. Taking that total listings figure and dividing it by the monthly sales figure of 4,446 indicates a continuing tight forward inventory of 2.3 months.

The average time for a home to sell in December was 32 days, "3% faster" than December, 2013's 33 days.

It'll be interesting to see how the collapsing oil price will impact the housing market here. The market's already stumbling in Alberta as would be expected, but estimates of $15 Billion in savings across the country as a result of cheap fuel mean people have more money to spend on other things. The other wild card for 2015 is, of course, interest rates. It should be an interesting year.

Whatever 2015 brings us, here's wishing "You and Yours" a very Happy New Year...

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