February 2023: Toronto & GTA MLS® home sales: Where do we go from here?

Toronto, Ontario, March 3rd, 2023 - The Toronto Region Real Estate Board - “TRREB” - released its monthly statistical update “MarketWatch” this morning showing a continuing softening in the Region’s home market and - while the number of newly listed properties was down significantly, the total number of homes available for sale was up about 38%.

The Numbers…

Overall - meaning all home types across all of TRREB’s market area - sales volume last month 47% versus last February to 4,783. The overall average selling price came in at $1,095,617, off 17.9%. All figures herein are year-over-year (YoY) comparisons unless noted otherwise.

Detached home sales totalled 482 in Metro Toronto, down 38%, at an average sell price of $1,712,364, off 17.5%. In the balance of TREB’s market area - the rest of The GTA (and beyond) - there were 1,593 sales for the Detached group, down 48.8%, at an average of $1,357,245, off 21.5% on the month.

Condominium Apartment sales in Toronto were down 48.1% to 952 reported at an average of $728,271, down 11.4%. Outside the city, 503 units sold, down 45.7%, averaging $662,323, a 12.4% drop.

On Inventory…

Total Active Listings were up 38.1% to 9,643 available properties versus last February’s 9,643.

“Forward Inventory” is an indicator of how long it would take to sell all the homes currently listed for sale if the rate of sales were to remain constant (Total Active Listings divided by current monthly Sales): That works out to about two months of inventory which is far more in line with historical norms.

Bungalows continue to draw a lot of attention across the Region as empty-nesters and “matures” look at downsizing but are often not ready to trade their back yards for balconies just yet. Inventory in this sector remains particularly tight.

Notable…

Consensus is that market activity for homes in the GTA has definitely begun to pick up in terms of inquiries from buyers
Inventory remains relatively tight in many areas
Competition & “bidding wars” will likely result should the above trends continue

Quotable…

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron: “It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the impact of higher borrowing costs. Many homebuyers have also decided to purchase a lower priced home to help offset higher borrowing costs. The share of home purchases below one million dollars is up substantially compared to this time last year."

Board Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer: “New listings continued to drop year-over-year in the GTA. Recently released Ipsos polling suggests buying intentions have picked up for 2023. This increased demand will run up against a constrained supply of listings and lead to increased competition between buyers. This will eventually lead to renewed price growth in many segments of the market, especially those catering to first-time buyers facing increased rental costs.”

Board CEO John DiMichele: “As we move toward a June mayoral by-election in Toronto, housing supply will once again be front and centre in the policy debate. New and innovative solutions, including the City of Toronto’s initiative to allow duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes in all neighbourhoods citywide, need to come to fruition if we are to achieve an adequate and diverse housing supply that will support record population growth in the years to come.”

Homes, on average sold “144% slower” this February at 22 days on the market (DoM) on average versus 9.

Thank-you - as always - for stopping by! If there’s anything we can do to help with your real estate needs, feel free to drop us a line anytime…

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