Toronto & GTA MLS® Stats, November, 2016: Continuing Tight Inventory Drives Price Growth Across the GTA

Toronto, Ontario, December 2, 2016 - Greater Toronto Area Realtors® today reported that 8,547 homes sold in November through the Toronto Real Estate Board's MLS® System, according to the Board's monthly MarketWatch publication. That figure represents a 16.5% increase compared to last November. Chart - Toronto & GTA Home Sales & Average Price by Major Home Type 2016-11

With continuing strong demand and no relief in the very tight supply conditions, price growth was once again robust. The numbers were strong in all categories with the exception of Semi-Detached home sales within Metropolitan Toronto - "The 416" - which were off 3.1%. As in some previous months, this is likely the result of a simple lack of inventory: Even though the number of sales dropped to 283, the average sale price of those "Semis" rose 20.3% to $906,353. In the balance of the GTA, 515 Semis traded hands, a rise of 12.2%, at an average sale price of $618,860, up 22.5%. All figures herein are year-over-year comparisons unless otherwise noted.

While overall price growth was strongest in the Detached home group, the increase in the number of homes sold was strongest in the Condo Apartment group in November.

Chart - Toronto & GTA Home Sales Year-Over-Year Summary @ 2016-11.png Specifically, 1,009 Detached homes changed hands in Metro Toronto in November, up 12.9%, at an average sale price of $1,345,962, a 32.3% rise. In the balance of the GTA - "The 905" - 2,881 Detached homes changed hands, 13.6% more than last year, at an average price of $957,517, up 25.5% and creeping closer to that "million dollar average" landmark in The 905. Overall, those numbers come out to 3,890 Detached sales, up 13.4%, at an average sale price of $1,058,273, 27.6% ...appreciation of nearly a quarter of a million dollars on average...tax free, obviously, in most cases...

As for the Condominium Apartment market, 1,718 MLS® sales were reported for Toronto, up 27.9%, at and average price of $471,256, up 13.5%. In the rest of the GTA, there were 691 Condo Apartment sales, up 20.8%, at an average price of $374,792, up 25.5%. Overall, that's 2,409 Condo Apartment sales, up 25.8%, at an average price of $443,586, up 15.1%.

Total combined MLS® sales - meaning all home types in all of Toronto and the GTA within TREB's market area - were 8,547 units, up 16.5%, at an average selling price of $776,684, up 22.7% year-over-year.

Inventory beyond "tight"...

Obviously, the tight inventory situation continues to drive the well-above-average price growth: there were Chart - Toronto & GTA Home Sales Historic Annual Stats to 2016-11.png 8,639 Total Active Listings at the end of November. At first glance that may seem like a lot...but it's a 35.8% dive from last November's 13,454 Total Active Listings. Last November's statistics blog post described that point in time as an "ongoing sellers' market" with 1.82 months of "Indicated Forward Inventory". If we take this November's Total Active Listings and divide by the month's Total Sales, we get a ridiculously tight Indicated Forward Inventory of just 1.01 months. If last November was an "ongoing sellers' market", the best description now might be "frenzied".

"Home buying activity remained strong across all market segments in November. However, many would-be home buyers continued to be frustrated by the lack of listings, as annual sales growth once again outstripped growth in new listings. Seller's market conditions translated into robust rates of price growth," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua.

Not surprisingly, houses sold "34.6% faster" this November versus last at just 17 days on the market versus 26. Virtually unheard of for the time of year...though I haven't actually gone back to check the stats on that. Doesn't matter. It speaks for itself.

A Decade Ago...

Once again, just for fun ["fun" if you're on the selling side...], let's have a peek at how the numbers looked in November, 2006 [with this November's figure in brackets]:
Total Sales through TREB's MLS®: 6,281 [8,547]
Average Sale Price of a Single Family Home: $355,727 [$776,684]
Total Active Listings: Approximately 22,000 [8,639]
Indicated Forward Inventory [Active Listings/Month's Sales]: Approximately 3.5 months [1.01]
Average DOM [Days on Market]: 38 [17]
*Note: TREB's boundaries have changed over the years...these numbers shouldn't be treated as direct comparisons, etc. Please see the "Archives" link below if you'd like more market info on any particular time period.

Quick Update on the Vancouver Market: Sales Down; Prices Up

November, 2016:
Total Residential Sales: 2,214 - down 0.9% from October and down 37.2% from one year earlier and down 7.6% versus the 10-year average for the month of November
"Composite Benchmark Price" - All Residential Propertites: $908,300, up 20.5% year-over-year [down 1.2% versus October, 2016]
Total Active Listings: 8,385, up 3.6% year-over-year [As noted above, there were just 8,639 residential listings on TREB's MLS®]
Indicated forward Inventory [Total Listings / Month's Sales]: 3.79 months, up from 2.34 months one year earlier

For an update of what's going on on your own street or in the neighbourhood generally, please use the link below.

Wishing "You and Yours" a Safe and Happy Holiday Season...and a wonderful 2017...

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